AUD, NZD & CAD

  • last edited Aug 6 2012 5:31 pm
    Let´s discuss everything Aussie, Kiwi and Loonie here!

    $audusd

    We´re at the top of the ascending channel and price has been consolidating there for a while, wich is also a strong fibonacci retracement level. RSI has tested the 70 level as resistance twice already. This is a strong channel that started early in July.

    I see 2 possible scenarios here.

    1- Price breaks out. I´ll be looking to go long here above 1.0600 at the retest of the trendline as support.

    2- Price bounces. I´ll be lloking to go short below 1.0500 and will be looking for my RSI to bounce off 70 and cross to the bear teritorry



    Even though we are clrearly in a bull market, I´m inclining for scneario 2. We have some bearish divergence there.

    We will just have to wait and see right guys?
  • last edited May 5 2016 1:40 pm by hindsighthero
    Ah finally someone opened an AUD thread smile Didn't want to open another currency thread. So really nice! Btw you don't need to use the "code" tags to post an image. I just used them in my guide to show the code itself, but it doesn't work yet. wink
  • Yeah I think so too, $audusd is one of my fav. Do you guys think we should stick to $audusd on this thread or bring in nzd and cad on it too?
  • I think it's fine to post these three here. If it gets too confusing, we can still open a thread for every pair.
  • Aviatar
    Nice Setup Orlando. I think in very similar way like you, but I dont use RSI.



    My thoughts about this Trade:
    1. Retracement broken 76,4% Level > Could be indice that the price goes upside and touch Resistance Level (not visible on this chart).
    2. The Price moved over one week in the channel, which was broken and retested > nice candle upside indicates bullish strength.
    3. Uptrend
    4. Retracement near 38,2%?

    My opinion: if there is no long Term Resistance Level, my Setup is to go long right away (after I saw chart), even RSI tells to go short. I am for scenario 1 wink
  • last edited Nov 17 2012 3:26 pm
    I see your point, but I don´t see 76.4% as broken, price has been in a 40 pip range for some time now, and I don´t see the channel being broken either.

    Check it out, when you say that a trendline / channel was broken, there is a few things you need to consider. In this example, price needs to open above the upper side of the channel, then it needs to retest it and find support for confirmation.

    If you go long to soon you might get stopped out because of a fake out (false breakout).

    I also see price tested and rejected 1.0600
  • last edited Nov 17 2012 3:27 pm

    We have a double top around 1.06000 wich normally is a good reversal pattern but price had been in a tight range so long that I need for it to break it.
  • Nice setup Orlando. I was looking for shorts since over a week I think, but didn't find a good entry for me yet. I will keep an eye on this. On the daily chart 1.044 is also quite interesting.
  • last edited Nov 17 2012 3:28 pm
    $nzdusd is a the bottom of a range testing support now and forming a 6 hour pin bar.

  • last edited Nov 17 2012 3:29 pm
    Martin.Schulz:
    Nice setup Orlando. I was looking for shorts since over a week I think, but didn't find a good entry for me yet. I will keep an eye on this. On the daily chart 1.044 is also quite interesting.

    Thanks Martin, I´ve also been looking to short it for a week or so. You are right I have support around 4363.
  • C001
    C001
    Deactivated user account
    Tonight at 12:45 am CEST there is important news for the NZD which might become your trigger.
  • Coen.Kuijpers:
    Tonight at 12:45 am CEST there is important news for the NZD which might become your trigger.

    thanks for the heads up! I´ll make sure to follow that closely to see how price reacts.
  • last edited Nov 17 2012 3:30 pm
    Coen.Kuijpers:
    Tonight at 12:45 am CEST there is important news for the NZD which might become your trigger.

    NZD retail sales rise 1.3%, estimate was 0.65%

    Sentiment seems to be bullish after the news
  • Nice set-up there, how did this work out?
  • last edited Aug 14 2012 2:56 pm
    RSI tested the 50 level as resistance / bearish doji / price reversal. There was no legitimate set up besides the bullish engulfing candle.
  • last edited Aug 14 2012 8:30 pm
    $nzdusd

    Looking at past price action, I realized we might be in a 3 wave correction pattern after a 5 wave move on the upside. If this is true we might expect a move to .7900 and below

    My correction wave count might be off but, I strongly beleive a move lower is on the horizon

    What do you guys think?
  • Like discussed on Skype, I am not an EW expert, so I am kind of unfamiliar with these patterns. For me the b wave is a bit too short. I also don't know about in which relative time these waves are allowed to form, but 2 looks really short compared to 4. So this is a very subjective topic I think. But I would like to have the ascending trend line here, which could be a possible target for a new low point, esp. after the 0,806 level got broken, which was the last support before. So I would aim for 0.797-5 I think. Maybe even waiting for a re-test of 0.806.
  • I agree that ABC pattern is off and it might be too son to count.
    I´m not a big EW expert myself but I analysed past price action to figure out why the long set up I posted didn´t worked.

    wave 2 retraces 38% of wave 1 and wave 4 retraces 50% of wave 3 so it´s inside the guidelines of the theory.
  • C001
    C001
    Deactivated user account
    Although I am a firm believer that on any random chart you will be able to plot Elliot waves, your post reminds that we need content on EW nonetheless. Thanks for that.

    You will also have realised that my answer above disqualifies me from commenting in depth on your post biggrin
  • last edited Aug 14 2012 10:05 pm
    orlando.gutierrez:
    I agree that ABC pattern is off and it might be too son to count.
    I´m not a big EW expert myself but I analysed past price action to figure out why the long set up I posted didn´t worked.
    wave 2 retraces 38% of wave 1 and wave 4 retraces 50% of wave 3 so it´s inside the guidelines of the theory.

    Interesting statement btw. We had a similar one today in the German community forum. I think you had a good idea there with valid signs for a long trade. However, it didn't worked out, but it doesn't mean that there was a flaw in your thought process. Otherwise that would mean, that there is a chance to predict movements with 100% accuracy if you eliminate all mistakes. And that is - like predicting a women's behaviour - not possible wink

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