GqOrlando´s trading: Market Cycles & Trends

  • last edited May 27 2016 12:44 pm
    0. NOTHING I SAY IS TRADING ADVICE, this has to be clear.

    1. I study price action and its cycles and position myslef accordingly in order to make a proft out of the move. Big changes in fiscal, monetary or economic policies are just catalysts; I understand their market repercussion and the price raction reaction on the instruments I trade.

    2. If there´s nothing to trade on; i.e important news releases I will spend 2h that day checking on my positions and price alerts and reviewing my entries and exits.

    3. I use MT4 and a set of indicators for my "blank canvas" charts. This indicators mainly give me move exhaustion levels. I use a squawk service and have it on always when I´m in front of my charts.

    4. We will be hsaring setups and trades. You can also share your setups here for discussion.

    5. Posting charts on developed trades, possible scenarios and long term targets is highly recommended and sought after, this is what I would be doing too.

    ---------------------------------

    I´ve decided on tradimo to keep a trading blog. Why you may ask? well it´s simple, I know them and believe in their work on spreading knowledge and educating to persue financial independence.

    Let´s start with one big rule of mine:correlation does not imply causation. Exactly, even if 2 pairs are stongly correlated you do not ever jump in blind, you look for setups and then take the desicion to jump in or not.

    This is a place for discussion so if you don´t agree with my analysis please post your chart so we can discuss it, you might save me a few pips by doing so.

    A little bit about my style:
    - I trade on the higher time frames and hold on to my trades a few days in average, until my targets are hit (or my stops for that matter).
    - I focus on levels, overextended trends and market cycles.
    - I look for high inflection levels to pick tops and bottoms. I can´t qualify myself as a contrarian but I do often trade against the current trend.
    - I monitor many markets but mainly focus on 14 forex currency pairs, spot gold, light sweet crude oil, and the e-minis.

    Rules of engagement:
    - Never risk more than 3% on a single trade.
    - Start with half a position and scale in the rest once we have definite direction.
    - Move stops accordingly to protect profits; moving them to the next areas of support or resistance that have been breached. A move back to them might invaidate your trade.
    - We don´t scalp. We need a bettern than 1:1.5 RRR to enter a position and a target of at least 30 pips; but we focus on 100+ pip intrawaeek moves
    - Whenever the market allows you to buy dips and sell rallies between your entry and target. (same RRR rules apply)
    - Stops are determined by the market, big enough to let my position breathe; decide on position size accordingly.
    - Never add to a loosing position.
    - Never let a winner become a looser

    TBC: I will be expanding my trading concepts on this first post.


    ------------------------------------------

    Currency analysis
    October 13th 2013 $eurusd short reversal on high risk environment
    October 16th 2013$gbpusd rally before a massive bear move
    November 14th 2013Long $usdjpy and analysis pre GDP release


    Great trades
    1/ $audusd long from 8900: 825 pips
    2/ $gbpaud double harmonic cycle: short on bearish bat completion and long after target is hit on bullish bat completion
    3/ $usdjpy countertrend trade: Reversal on harmonics and divergence at resistance

    -----------------------------------------

    Books
    HARMONIC TRADING profiting from the natural order of the financial markets by Scott M. Carney

    Helpful stuff : indicators and how tos
    Harmonic patterns explained
    How to trade a triangle break out
    Money Manager Indicator

    Trading videos
    This is Linda Raschke´s Classic Indicators (part1)
    Daytrading explained by a Chicago futures floor trader
    Money and Speed: Inside The Black Box
    The Wall Street Code (Marije Meerman, VPRO)
    Mark Douglas - MIND OVER MARKET


    Important links
    C-Span Live
    US Energy Information Administration
    UK Office of National Statistics
    White House: POTUS speaches
    Federal Reserve: Chairman of the Fed speaches and FOMC announcements
    International monetary fund live stream
    Federal Reserve: Recent developments / News releases and speaches / FOMC / Economic research
    European Central Bank: Publications / Press
    Bank of England: News releases / Speaches and articles
    Bank of Japan: News releases / Speaches and statemetns
    Reserve Bank of Australia: latest news / Media releases / Speaches

    ----------------------------------------
    Reserved for future challenges


    'Scuse me while I kiss the sky
  • First chart I chose $usdjpy

    I was setting up for a big reversal trade (and still am) but price kept ranging between 0.764 and 100.650 support.


    Chart is pretty self explenatory of why I chose to short at that level.
  • $cable

    Cable bottomed this week and had rejected a strong support on various occasions. Here are my levels.

  • Hi Orlando, good to have you back!

    I like that you pointed out that correlation is not causation, that is what i try to follow as well. Correlation in my view is not a confirmation but extra information that adds more variables instead of eliminating them which is the opposite of what we want to achieve before making a trading decision!

    The avatar? You? Lou Bega style? And older?
  • Welcome back!

    Quick question - have you signed up for the 100K challenge?
    Might be something of interest to you?
  • @hindsighthero thanks for stopping by dude. I agree with you 100%, correlation does actually helps us bias-wise in our decisions. I have alerts when new posts are made on your blog and I like how quickly you have grown as a trader, and I see you are so into EWT, which is fantastic, kudos (I use it a lot too)

    What do you think about UJ now? If you see closely on my chart we can clearly see a 1-2-3-4-5 flat ont he top pattern and shorted the A-B-C correction to the 1.272 extension. I´m still short even though 0.382 has been a great area of support but we are still below the 200MA (actually making a hammer betwwen 200 and 55 for a squeeze/8h)

    I´ll post an updated chart once we have definite direction.

    @e.hertogs thanks happy to be back. I saw that promotion and will be happy to participate in the future, this is a great promo btw. I might do a challenge of my own in the near future.

    Also the avatar is not me, I´m 31 and latino haha, but I read a lot.
  • This blog will be legendary! GL Orlando smile
  • thanks fisky! I came across this today, it got a laugh out of me

  • biggrin biggrin True story, there are lot of hedge funds out there which talk the talk but cannot walk the walk
  • last edited Jul 11 2013 11:37 pm
    @Orlando I think i see the formation you are talking about. I would look for shorts above 100 for now if there are rejections (4H) to the upside but wouldn't hold it for too long as we are sitting on support so any downside rejection (daily) is buying opportunity. Does that make sense?

  • the thing you need to consider here is a trend reversal, at least I am. Basically price took our previous lows and is making lower highs, this is what I´m playing at the moment.
  • I just passed the beginner strategy quizzes, it only took me almost 3 hours.... lol
  • This is my UJ chart. Now the shaded yellow area (you can see I took the tests) is the wedge I´m talking about.



    About the first 2 posted trades, here are the results:
    $cable +258 pips
    $usdjpy +385 pips on 2 positions.

    Happy weekend and gl on sunday with them gaps.
  • I`m stoping by for a quick chart share.

    $ES_F

    price boke support (1676/77) and closed below 200sma. The 2 point gap (1655/57) is closing now and I expect 1647 to be the next area os fupport (fibo confluence)



    $YM_F

    Short scalp on today`s selloff. Now if price braks 14960 and that long term ascending support we can expect a free fall. In any case I`ll wait until I see a clear reaction of these levels



    Comments are welcome
  • $YM Daily

    George Lane`s bear set up in the works? If so we need a small rally to complete this low.



    Any thoughts?
  • last edited Aug 16 2013 7:07 pm
    .
  • Orlando Gutierrez:
    $YM Daily

    George Lane`s bear set up in the works? If so we need a small rally to complete this low.



    Any thoughts?

    That setup looks so obvious and clear - one first has to find it of cource wink
    Why the focus on metals? Because the currencies dont make that much noise during the summer? Is it not the same for metal?

    Is that free hour of coaching still up for grabs? Tom Wolfe?

    Good luck with your trades.
  • nolayuprule:

    That setup looks so obvious and clear - one first has to find it of cource wink
    Why the focus on metals? Because the currencies dont make that much noise during the summer? Is it not the same for metal?

    Is that free hour of coaching still up for grabs? Tom Wolfe?

    Good luck with your trades.

    hey man, the setup looked obvious but the move sure wasn´t what I expected. I´ve been focusing on metals, indices and crude mostly because of summer trading and low volatility on the currency market; but having said that I also have been looking to expand my portfolio for a while now.

    This is an update on my crude trade from last week, looking at 102.80 and a reaction to decide what to do.



    And yes that it Tom Wolfe, how did you know that? give me your skype handle so I can add you.
  • Hi Orlando

    just caught this interesting remark of yours in your answer to Russel that you used an MA for counter trend strategy... How do you use it? Could you pls show that EJ trade?

    thanks,
    Hindsight
  • Hey, sorry for the late reply. trend following and trend spotting indicators are great to find peaks and bottoms but again they must be used with other indies and within a system for them to be accurate.

    When I post a chart I usually delete a bunch of stuff on them and make them simple but since you asked I´ll share my $usdcad chart here and explain my thought process.

    Beware: it´s fibolicious.



    After a nice rally on this pair I was looking for resistance for a correction; I wasn´t looking to short it yet, just a reaction.

    After a bounce on the 0555 resistance area I drew my fib levels to check out the cycle on which it had moved up there and I found a bearish bat (I trade a lot harmonic patterns)

    After a close below the daily open (this was on friday) and a close below my trend spotting indi I decided to short it. (Also to consider is RSI TL)

    Hope this helps and any further questions just post them.

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